Nitrogen and phosphorus trends in lake sediments of China may diverge.

The brief history of monitoring nutrient levels in Chinese lake waters limits our understanding of the causes and the long-term trends of their eutrophication and constrains effective lake management. We therefore synthesize nutrient data from lakes in China to reveal the historical changes and project their future trends to 2100 using models. Here we show that the average concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in lake sediments have increased by 267% and 202%, respectively since 1850. In the model projections, 2030-2100, the nitrogen concentrations in the studied lakes in China may decrease, for example, by 87% in the southern districts and by 19% in the northern districts. However, the phosphorus concentrations will continue to increase by an average of 25% in the Eastern Plain, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and Xinjiang. Based on this differentiation, we suggest that nitrogen and phosphorus management in Chinese lakes should be carried out at the district level to help develop rational and sustainable environmental management strategies.

Optimum plastic mulching application to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without compromising on crop yield and farmers' income.

With the rapid socio-economic development in China, poverty alleviation and the reduction of the environmental footprint in the plastic film mulching (PM) planting system have become key to sustainable agricultural production. Although many studies have evaluated the maize yield, agricultural economic benefits, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with PM through small-scale field experiments, identifying suitable PM regions in combination with their demographic characteristics and the future development of such systems has received little attention. This study combines a Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model and demographic characteristics to determine the optimum PM region in rainfed areas of the Loess Plateau in northwest China. The results demonstrated that PM produced a higher maize yield, agricultural net profit (ANP), and cost-benefit ratio compared to a control treatment (CK) without PM. An agricultural income far above the poverty level would assist in meeting the goals of alleviating poverty and building a prosperous society. In addition, the PM system produced more GHG emissions, but had a lower greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) than CK under both low (200 kg N ha-1) and high (300 kg N ha-1) nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates. This study developed a framework to evaluate maize yield alongside economic and environmental indicators. We concluded that PM should be adopted in areas with precipitation less than 500 mm, and concentrated in the region with rainfall of 200-400 mm. The results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of the PM maize planting system, and will contribute to the desired goal of environmentally sustainable agricultural production.

Overcoming socioeconomic barriers to reduce agricultural ammonia emission in China.

China is the world's largest country on ammonia (NH3) emission, which results in sever air pollution there. China's updated Clean Air Act has started to pay attention to NH3 reduction, but it is believed that solutions are mainly constrained by implementation of suitable technologies. Here we argued that socioeconomic barriers are the key to hinder the reduction of agricultural NH3 emission for better air quality in China. We found that small farm size is the key driving force for high NH3 emission from croplands, while little manure storage and recycle facilities and the mismatch of livestock and cropland on spatial distribution are the reasons for high NH3 emission from livestock. Overcoming these socioeconomic barriers could at least reduce half of the agricultural NH3 emission while maintaining food production in China. It not only can benefit air quality but also reduce potentials of eutrophication, groundwater contamination, soil acidification, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emission.

Coupled modelling and sampling approaches to assess the impacts of human water management on land-sea carbon transfer.

Land-sea riverine carbon transfer (LSRCT) is one of the key processes in the global carbon cycle. Although natural factors (e.g. climate, soil) influence LSRCT, human water management strategies have also been identified as a critical component. However, few systematic approaches quantifying the contribution of coupled natural and anthropogenic factors on LSRCT have been published. This study presents an integrated framework coupling hydrological modeling, field sampling and stable isotope analysis for the quantitative assessment of the impact of human water management practices (e.g. irrigation, dam construction) on LSRCT under different hydrological conditions. By applying this approach to the case study of the Nandu River, China, we find that carbon (C) concentrations originating from different land-uses (e.g. forest, cropland) are relatively stable and outlet C variations are mainly dominated by controlled runoff volumes rather than by input C concentrations. These results indicate that human water management practices are responsible for a reduction of ∼60% of riverine C at seasonal timescales, with an even greater reduction during drought conditions. Annual C discharges have been significantly reduced (e.g. 77 ±â€¯5% in 2015 and 39 ±â€¯11% in 2016) due to changes in human water extraction coupled with climate variation. In addition, isotope analysis also shows that C fluxes influenced by human activities (e.g. agriculture, aquaculture) could contribute the dominant particulate organic carbon under typical climatic conditions, as well as drought conditions. This research demonstrates the substantial effect that human water management practices have on the seasonal and annual fluxes of LSRCT, especially in such small basins. This work also shows the applicability of this integrated approach, using multiple tools to quantify the contribution of coupled anthropogenic and natural factors on LSRCT, and the general framework is believed to be feasible with limited modifications for larger basins in future research.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the pollutant discharge permit program in China: A case study of the Nenjiang River Basin.

China is continually seeking to improve river water quality. Implemented in 1996, the total pollutant load control system (TPLCS) is a regulatory strategy to reduce total pollutant loads, under which a Pollutant Discharge Permit (PDP) program tracks and regulates nutrient inputs from point source polluters. While this has been promising, the input-response relationship between discharge permits and water quality targets is largely unclear - especially in China's large and complex river basins. In response, this study involved a quantitative analysis method to combine the water quality targets of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) with allocated PDPs in the Nenjiang River Basin, China. We demonstrated our approach by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Nenjiang River Basin for hydrological and water quality simulation. Ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) was used as the primary water quality indicator. Modelling indicated that only one control section in the wider river basin did not achieve the water quality target, suggesting that the TPLCS is largely effective. The framework should be applied in other basins to study the effectiveness of PDP policies, advise further updates to the TPLCS, and ultimately aim to achieve freshwater quality targets nationally.

Managing nitrogen to restore water quality in China.

The nitrogen cycle has been radically changed by human activities1. China consumes nearly one third of the world's nitrogen fertilizers. The excessive application of fertilizers2,3 and increased nitrogen discharge from livestock, domestic and industrial sources have resulted in pervasive water pollution. Quantifying a nitrogen 'boundary'4 in heterogeneous environments is important for the effective management of local water quality. Here we use a combination of water-quality observations and simulated nitrogen discharge from agricultural and other sources to estimate spatial patterns of nitrogen discharge into water bodies across China from 1955 to 2014. We find that the critical surface-water quality standard (1.0 milligrams of nitrogen per litre) was being exceeded in most provinces by the mid-1980s, and that current rates of anthropogenic nitrogen discharge (14.5 ± 3.1 megatonnes of nitrogen per year) to fresh water are about 2.7 times the estimated 'safe' nitrogen discharge threshold (5.2 ± 0.7 megatonnes of nitrogen per year). Current efforts to reduce pollution through wastewater treatment and by improving cropland nitrogen management can partially remedy this situation. Domestic wastewater treatment has helped to reduce net discharge by 0.7 ± 0.1 megatonnes in 2014, but at high monetary and energy costs. Improved cropland nitrogen management could remove another 2.3 ± 0.3 megatonnes of nitrogen per year-about 25 per cent of the excess discharge to fresh water. Successfully restoring a clean water environment in China will further require transformational changes to boost the national nutrient recycling rate from its current average of 36 per cent to about 87 per cent, which is a level typical of traditional Chinese agriculture. Although ambitious, such a high level of nitrogen recycling is technologically achievable at an estimated capital cost of approximately 100 billion US dollars and operating costs of 18-29 billion US dollars per year, and could provide co-benefits such as recycled wastewater for crop irrigation and improved environmental quality and ecosystem services.

Publisher Correction: Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

A quantitative analysis of global environmental protection values based on the world values survey data from 1994 to 2014.

The four most recent sub-datasets of the World Value Survey (WVS) database (i.e., WVS3, WVS4, WVS5, and WVS6) contain a total of 25 non-numerical variables of environmental protection values and cover the period from 1994 to 2014. This study utilized these datasets to obtain the spatiotemporal distributions of the values and provided a preliminary analysis of the environmental protection values in different cultural districts. The work includes 4 parts. First, the information from the values included in the 25 variables is subjectively classified into action values and attitude values according to the meanings of the variable labels. Then, quantitative clustering is used to verify the results of the first step. These two steps consistently classify the 25 variables into "action" and "attitude" families. At the third step, all variables are processed as horizontal distributions in terms of the country using the arithmetic mean of the serial numbers chosen by the respondents because these numbers reflect the grade of the behavior or attitude toward environmental protection. A clustering procedure is also included in this step to reconfirm the classification results of the previous two steps. Finally, the two families are quantified using their common factors, which are the first leading modes of the empirical orthogonal function for each family. The multiyear averaged cultural district mean "action" and "attitude" indices are analyzed according to the World Culture Map. The results show that districts with different cultures have very different environmental protection values.

Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

Multiple studies have reported a shift in the trend of warm season rainfall over arid eastern-central Asia (AECA) around the turn of the new century, from increasing over the second half of the twentieth century to decreasing during the early years of the twenty-first. Here, a closer look based on multiple precipitation datasets reveals important regional disparities in these changes. Warm-season rainfall increased over both basin areas and mountain ranges during 1961-1998 due to enhanced moisture flux convergence associated with changes in the large-scale circulation and increases in atmospheric moisture content. Despite a significant decrease in warm-season precipitation over the high mountain ranges after the year 1998, warm season rainfall has remained large over low-lying basin areas. This discrepancy, which is also reflected in changes in river flow, soil moisture, and vegetation, primarily results from disparate responses to enhanced warming in the mountain and basin areas of AECA. In addition to changes in the prevailing circulation and moisture transport patterns, the decrease in precipitation over the mountains has occurred mainly because increases in local water vapor saturation capacity (which scales with temperature) have outpaced the available moisture supply, reducing relative humidity and suppressing precipitation. By contrast, rainfall over basin areas has been maintained by accelerated moisture recycling driven by rapid glacier retreat, snow melt, and irrigation expansion. This trend is unsustainable and is likely to reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear, with potentially catastrophic implications for local agriculture and ecology.

Analyzing and modelling the effect of long-term fertilizer management on crop yield and soil organic carbon in China.

This study analyzes the influence of various fertilizer management practices on crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) based on the long-term field observations and modelling. Data covering 11 years from 8 long-term field trials were included, representing a range of typical soil, climate, and agro-ecosystems in China. The process-based model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) was used to simulate the response of crop yield and SOC to various fertilization regimes. The results showed that the yield and SOC under additional manure application treatment were the highest while the yield under control treatment was the lowest (30%-50% of NPK yield) at all sites. The SOC in northern sites appeared more dynamic than that in southern sites. The variance partitioning analysis (VPA) showed more variance of crop yield could be explained by the fertilization factor (42%), including synthetic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) fertilizers, and fertilizer NPK combined with manure. The interactive influence of soil (total N, P, K, and available N, P, K) and climate factors (mean annual temperature and precipitation) determine the largest part of the SOC variance (32%). EPIC performs well in simulating both the dynamics of crop yield (NRMSE = 32% and 31% for yield calibration and validation) and SOC (NRMSE = 13% and 19% for SOC calibration and validation) under diverse fertilization practices in China. EPIC can assist in predicting the impacts of different fertilization regimes on crop growth and soil carbon dynamics, and contribute to the optimization of fertilizer management for different areas in China.

On the Growth and Detectability of Land Plants on Habitable Planets around M Dwarfs.

One signature of life on Earth is the vegetation red edge (VRE) feature of land plants, a dramatic change of reflectivity at wavelength near 0.7 µm. Potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs are tidally locked, which can limit the distribution of land plants. In this study, we used a biogeochemical model to investigate the distribution of land plants on potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs driven by climate data produced in a general circulation model (GCM). When considering the effects of clouds, the observation time needed for VRE detection on nearby p = 1 exoplanets around nearby M dwarfs is on the order of days using a 25 m2 telescope if a large continent faces Earth during observations. For p = 1.5 exoplanets, the detection time could be similar if land plants developed the capability to endure a dark/cold environment for extended periods of time and the continent configuration favors observations. Our analysis suggests that hypothetical exovegetation VRE features are easier to detect than Earth vegetation and that VRE detection is possible for nearby exoplanets even under cloudy conditions. Key Words: Vegetation red edge-Exoplanets-M dwarfs-Biosignature detection. Astrobiology 17, 1219-1232.

Changing patterns of urban-rural nutrient flows in China: driving forces and options.

Nutrient recycling has been practiced for thousands of years in China to maintain food production without environmental pollution. In the past three decades, however, the traditional nutrient recycling systems have been replaced with waste treatment systems, which have resulted in rapid and severe environmental pollution. By analyzing the primary driving forces of the changing nutrient flows (technology, labor costs, food supplies, fertilizer demands, environmental quality, human health, and public awareness), this paper argues that technology fundamentally motivated the nutrient-recycling strategy to address the malnutrition problem in traditional societies but has constrained the reconstruction of nutrient recycling systems in modern cities. With the availability of synthetic fertilizers in modern society, the lack of interdisciplinary views in policy making for nutrient management is the root cause of today's environmental situation. Ongoing fast urbanization has concentrated more nutrients in urban areas, creating the need for a national nutrient management plan to coordinate multiple ministries and fix the uncoupled nutrient cycling between urban and rural systems. Rebuilding the traditional nutrient-recycling systems is an environmentally and economically effective solution. There are three fundamental technological barriers to reconstructing the nutrient recycling systems, as follows: user-friendly toilets, the separation of sewage pipelines, and easy-to-use organic fertilizers made from human manure or other organic waste. Overcoming these barriers requires building institutional mechanisms, developing the necessary infrastructure, creating research funding, and providing open experimental platforms for technological development.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.